George K Davis

Ph.D.	1984	Southern Methodist University	Dallas, Texas	Economics
M.A.	1978	Southern Methodist University	Dallas, Texas	Economics
B.S.	1977	Southern Methodist University	Dallas, Texas	Economics

Advanced Macroeconomics	Economic Growth	Topics in Macroeconomics
Applied Time Series Analysis	Intermediate Macroeconomic Theory	Money and Banking
Principles of Macroeconomics

Pecquet, G. , G. K Davis, & B. Kanago. (2004), 'The Emancipation Proclamation, Confederate Expectations, and the Price of Southern Bank Notes,' Southern Economic Journal vol. 70, pp. 616-30.
Acceptance Date: 2003

Davis, G. K & B. Kanago. (2002), 'The Correlation Between Prices and Output: Controlling for Contaminating Dynamics,' Applied Economics vol. 34, pp. 2333-2339 .

Davis, G. K & B. Kanago. (2000), 'The Level and Uncertainty of Inflation: Results from OECD Forecasts,' Economic Inquiry, pp. 58-72.

Davis, G. K & B. E. Kanago. (1998), 'High and Uncertain Inflation: Results from a New Data Set,' Journal Of Money, Credit, And Banking, pp. 218-230.

Davis, G. K & B. E Kanago. (1997), 'Contract Duration, Inflation Uncertainty, and the Welfare Effects of Inflation,' Journal Of Macroeconomics, pp. 237-251.

Davis, G. K & N. Miller. (1996), 'Exchange Rate Mean Reversion from Real Shocks within an Intertemporal Equilibrium Model,' Journal Of International Money And Finance vol. 15, pp. 947-967.

Davis, G. K & B. E Kanago. (1996), 'The Missing Link: The Relationship Between the Level and Predictability of Inflation in High Inflation Countries Southern Economic Journal, 63, July 1996, pp. 205-22.(with Bryce Kanago),' Southern Economic Journal vol. 63, pp. 205-222.
Acceptance Date: 1995

Davis, G. K & B. E Kanago. (1996), 'On Measuring the Effects of Inflation Uncertainty on Real Growth ,' forthcoming in Oxford Economic Papers vol. 48, pp. 163-175.
Acceptance Date: 1995

Davis, G. K & M. Toma. (1995), 'Inflation, Reserve Requirements, and Real Interest Rates with Direct and Indirect Loan Markets ,' Journal Of Macroeconomics vol. 17
Acceptance Date: 1994

Davis, G. K & B. E Kanago. (1992), 'The Robustness of the Split-Trend Stationarity Hypothesis for the U.S. ,' Southern Economic Journal vol. 59, pp. 9-14.
Acceptance Date: 1991

Davis, G. K & B. E Kanago. (1992), 'Misspecification Bias in Models of the Effect of Inflation Uncertainty (with Bryce Kanago). Economics Letters (38) (1992) pp. 325-329.' Economics Letters vol. 38, pp. 325-329.
Acceptance Date: 1991

Davis, G. K & G. Pecquet. (1990), 'Interest Rates in the Civil War South ,' Journal of Economic History vol. 50, pp. 133-148.
Acceptance Date: 1989

Davis, G. K , (1989), 'Relative Uncertainty Economic Letters,' Economics Letters vol. 29, pp. 307-310.
Acceptance Date: 1988

Davis, G. K , (1989), 'A Note on Inflation Uncertainty and Monetary Policy ,' Journal Of Macroeconomics vol. 11, pp. 435-446.
Acceptance Date: 1988

Davis, G. K , (1989), 'Income and Substitution Effects for Mean-Preserving Spreads ,' International Economic Review vol. 30, pp. 131-136.
Acceptance Date: 1988

Davis, G. K , (2005), 'Review of Elhanan Helpman The Mystery of Economic Growth,' Journal is not in list - being petitioned (Invited)
Acceptance Date: 2005

Davis, G. K , (1996), 'The Macroeconomic Curriculum: A Proposal for Change ,' Journal of Economic Education vol. 27, no. 2, pp. 126-138. (Invited)
Acceptance Date: 1996

Davis, G. K , (1993), 'New Keynsian Economics: Volume 1-Imperfect Competition and Sticky Prices by N. Gregory Mankiw and David Romer,' Journal is not in list - being petitioned vol. 2, no. 2 (Invited)
Acceptance Date: 1993

Davis, G. K. , 1997, The Fundamentals of Macroeconomics , Ross Publishing, Loveland, Ohio.

Davis, G. K. & O. Homer Erekson. ""Teaching Intermediate Economic Theory"," 1997, Teaching Undergraduate Economics: A Handbook for Instructors , McGraw-Hill/Irwin

Davis, G. K & B. E Kanago. (2005), 'Mismatching Measures of Output and Prices: Implications For the Cyclical Behavior of Prices and Relative Prices', initial submission at Journal Of Money, Credit, And Banking.

Description: The correlation between price and output shocks provides information on the nature of macroeconomic shocks. In general, previous research finds that for short forecast horizons the correlation between shocks to real gdp and the gdp deflator are negatively correlated, while shocks to industrial production and the consumer price index are positively correlated. We argue that the positive correlation between industrial production and the consumer price index should be discounted because the goods in the industrial production index are not well matched to the prices in the cpi. Since there is no price index that corresponds to industrial production, we examine the correlation between shocks to prices and output using data on types of expenditures and types of products included in GDP. When price and output indicies are well matched the correlation between shocks is typically negative. On the other hand, correlations between shocks to output measures containing mostly durable goods and shocks to price indicies containing mostly nondurable goods are mostly positive. This finding suggests that positive correlation to the index of IP and the CPI may be the consequence of a mismatch between output and prices.

Description: Our title is a slight variation of How the West Grew Rich by Rosenberg and Birdsell. They, and other economic historians, argue that economic growth began with the end of the economic and political structure of the middle ages. We model this argument by assuming states maximize revenues. Military technology in the middle ages led to manors, where the optimal tax regime was full exploitation with no incentive to innovate. Changes in military technology increased the size of nations making the optimal tax regime a proportional one. The incentive this tax provided for innovation was the beginning of economic growth.

Davis, G. K & B. E Kanago. (2004), 'The Natural Rate of Unemployment:A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Cross-State Data'

Description: We use state-level panel data to investigate determinants of the natural rate of unemployment. Earlier work proposed various explanations of a decline in the natural rate in the 1990's. We specify a dynamic panel model using five-year averages of the data to control for cyclical movements in measured unemployment rates. We estimate the joint effects of incarceration rates, home ownership rates, rates of unionization, minimum wages, productivity growth, and wage inequality. Each of these variables, to varying extents, helps explain movements in the natural rate. We estimate the natural rate for each state and the US for three five-year windows.

Davis, G. K & B. E Kanago. (2001), 'Inflation and Relative Price Volatility:Evidence from Seven OECD Countries'

Description: An unwarranted increase in relative price variability makes most lists of the costs of increased inflation, and the empirical relationship between inflation and relative price volatility has been extensively studied. In general, researchers find a positive relationship between relative price variability and inflation; but the details vary from study to study. We add to this literature by investigating this relationship in seven OECD countries and by decomposing the effects of inflation into those from expected and those from unexpected inflation. While some previous studies have included unexpected inflation as an independent variable, many of them study high inflation countries and many of them have derived unexpected inflation by using autoregressive models to generate expected inflation. As an alternative, we use inflation forecasts published in OECD's Economic Outlook to derive unexpected inflation. According to this data the relation between inflation and relative price dispersion is driven primarily by unexpected inflation. This finding suggests that the welfare gains from reduced relative price dispersion are more likely to come from increased predictably of inflation than simply from lower inflation